Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Derrick Lewis
Ciryl Gane
61%
39%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 2"
81"
36
Age
Δ 5y
31
30-13
Career record
Δ 18 pp
14-2
W4
Current streak
W6
21
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Lewis: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Gane: 98 sig / 0 TD
Derrick Lewis
Ciryl Gane
44
Sig strikes landed
78
89
Sig strikes attempted
125
51
Total strikes landed
86
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
84s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
30-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
21 fights · 16-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
Blue corner
W6
Ciryl Gane
"Bon Gamin"
14-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—