Main
Women's Flyweight
Montana De La Rosa vs Ariane da Silva
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Montana De La Rosa
Ariane da Silva
58%
42%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
26
Age
Δ 1y
27
13-9-2
Career record
Δ 4 pp
17-12
D1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
De La Rosa: 29 sig / 2 TD ·
da Silva: 11 sig / 0 TD
Montana De La Rosa
Ariane da Silva
42
Sig strikes landed
43
105
Sig strikes attempted
105
77
Total strikes landed
75
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.8
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
192s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Montana De La Rosa
13-9-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
7 fights · 4-2
Last 5
D
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
Blue corner
L1
Ariane da Silva
"Queen of Violence"
17-12
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—