Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alan Patrick
Mason Jones
28%
72%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
38
Age
Δ 12y
26
15-5
Career record
Δ 11 pp
18-3
L2
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Could Not Continue · Round 2
Patrick: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Jones: 46 sig / 2 TD
Alan Patrick
Mason Jones
62
Sig strikes landed
60
118
Sig strikes attempted
141
84
Total strikes landed
88
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
10.2
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
266s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Alan Patrick
"Nuguette"
15-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
L
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
Blue corner
L1
Mason Jones
"The Dragon"
18-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—