Main
Welterweight
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Miguel Baeza
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Miguel Baeza
79%
21%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
35
Age
Δ 6y
29
31-10
Career record
Δ 2 pp
11-4
L1
Current streak
W3
12
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ponzinibbio: 121 sig / 0 TD ·
Baeza: 104 sig / 0 TD
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Miguel Baeza
51
Sig strikes landed
44
124
Sig strikes attempted
105
59
Total strikes landed
44
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.1
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
61s
Control time
4s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Santiago Ponzinibbio
"Argentine Dagger"
31-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
Blue corner
W3
Miguel Baeza
"Caramel Thunder"
11-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—