Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Walt Harris
Marcin Tybura
23%
77%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
38
Age
Δ 2y
36
13-11
Career record
Δ 18 pp
28-11
L2
Current streak
W4
15
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Harris: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Tybura: 4 sig / 1 TD
Walt Harris
Marcin Tybura
27
Sig strikes landed
39
62
Sig strikes attempted
72
33
Total strikes landed
61
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
75s
Control time
168s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Walt Harris
"The Big Ticket"
13-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
15 fights · 6-8
Last 5
L
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
Blue corner
W4
Marcin Tybura
"Tybur"
28-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—