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Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Augusto Sakai

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Augusto Sakai
48% 52%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
15-7
Career record
Δ 1 pp
16-6-1
L1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Rozenstruik: 16 sig / 0 TD · Sakai: 3 sig / 0 TD
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Augusto Sakai
39
Sig strikes landed
48
90
Sig strikes attempted
90
40
Total strikes landed
66
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
0.7
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
30s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
64%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

"Bigi Boy"
15-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
L UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
Blue corner
L1

Augusto Sakai

16-6-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—