Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Matt Brown
Dhiego Lima
46%
54%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
40
Age
Δ 8y
32
26-20
Career record
Δ 6 pp
17-10
L2
Current streak
L1
22
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Brown: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Lima: 23 sig / 0 TD
Matt Brown
Dhiego Lima
39
Sig strikes landed
39
68
Sig strikes attempted
80
50
Total strikes landed
50
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
93s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
26-20
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
22 fights · 11-11
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
Blue corner
L1
Dhiego Lima
17-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 4-6
Last 5
L
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—