Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Parisian
Roque Martinez
69%
31%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 7"
72"
32
Age
Δ 3y
35
15-9
Career record
Δ 5 pp
15-9-2
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Parisian: 79 sig / 1 TD ·
Martinez: 64 sig / 0 TD
Josh Parisian
Roque Martinez
50
Sig strikes landed
53
92
Sig strikes attempted
96
100
Total strikes landed
99
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
0.8
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
68s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
64%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Josh Parisian
15-9
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
Blue corner
L2
Roque Martinez
15-9-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—