Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marlon Vera
Davey Grant
70%
30%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
28
Age
Δ 7y
36
23-13-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
19-8
L1
Current streak
W3
16
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Vera: 105 sig / 2 TD ·
Grant: 83 sig / 1 TD
Marlon Vera
Davey Grant
59
Sig strikes landed
47
110
Sig strikes attempted
98
65
Total strikes landed
61
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
101s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Marlon Vera
"Chito"
23-13-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
Blue corner
W3
Davey Grant
"Dangerous"
19-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
L
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—