Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Julian Erosa
SeungWoo Choi
81%
19%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
32-14
Career record
Δ 10 pp
12-8
W2
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Erosa: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Choi: 13 sig / 0 TD
Julian Erosa
SeungWoo Choi
47
Sig strikes landed
45
103
Sig strikes attempted
106
61
Total strikes landed
58
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
104s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Julian Erosa
"Juicy J"
32-14
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
Blue corner
W2
SeungWoo Choi
"Sting"
12-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
L
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—