Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Aleksei Oleinik
Serghei Spivac
90%
10%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
44
Age
Δ 18y
26
60-18-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
19-6
L2
Current streak
W2
14
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Oleinik: 59 sig / 1 TD ·
Spivac: 71 sig / 0 TD
Aleksei Oleinik
Serghei Spivac
28
Sig strikes landed
51
53
Sig strikes attempted
70
41
Total strikes landed
73
0.7
Takedowns landed
2.5
1.3
Takedowns attempted
5.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
129s
Control time
229s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Aleksei Oleinik
"The Boa Constrictor"
60-18-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
44
In our database
14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W2
Serghei Spivac
"Polar Bear"
19-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—