Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Leon Edwards
Nate Diaz
83%
17%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
30
Age
Δ 6y
36
22-6
Career record
Δ 17 pp
22-14
W8
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Edwards: 77 sig / 4 TD ·
Diaz: 76 sig / 0 TD
Leon Edwards
Nate Diaz
65
Sig strikes landed
53
138
Sig strikes attempted
106
83
Total strikes landed
74
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
254s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
22-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
13 fights · 10-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
Blue corner
L1
Nate Diaz
22-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
17 fights · 9-8
Last 5
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
L
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—