Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Demian Maia
Belal Muhammad
36%
64%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
44
Age
Δ 11y
33
28-12
Career record
Δ 13 pp
24-5
L1
Current streak
W4
26
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maia: 21 sig / 1 TD ·
Muhammad: 45 sig / 0 TD
Demian Maia
Belal Muhammad
33
Sig strikes landed
50
73
Sig strikes attempted
129
53
Total strikes landed
85
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
12.5
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
229s
Control time
180s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Demian Maia
28-12
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
44
In our database
26 fights · 17-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
Blue corner
W4
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
24-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
13 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—