Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Drew Dober
Brad Riddell
68%
32%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
29-16
Career record
Δ 9 pp
11-4
L1
Current streak
W3
16
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dober: 73 sig / 1 TD ·
Riddell: 89 sig / 5 TD
Drew Dober
Brad Riddell
47
Sig strikes landed
47
117
Sig strikes attempted
95
60
Total strikes landed
61
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
125s
Control time
44s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Drew Dober
29-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
16 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
Blue corner
W3
Brad Riddell
"Quake"
11-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—