Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Paul Craig
Jamahal Hill
47%
53%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
79"
34
Age
Δ 3y
30
18-10-1
Career record
Δ 14 pp
13-4
W2
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Craig: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Hill: 1 sig / 0 TD
Paul Craig
Jamahal Hill
40
Sig strikes landed
36
95
Sig strikes attempted
72
45
Total strikes landed
47
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.2
4.4
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
124s
Control time
36s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
18-10-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
Blue corner
W2
Jamahal Hill
"Sweet Dreams"
13-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—