Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryan Hall
Ilia Topuria
17%
83%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
36
Age
Δ 12y
24
10-2
Career record
Δ 17 pp
18-0
W4
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hall: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Topuria: 18 sig / 0 TD
Ryan Hall
Ilia Topuria
14
Sig strikes landed
34
29
Sig strikes attempted
57
22
Total strikes landed
51
-0.3
Takedowns landed
2.6
0.8
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
19s
Control time
273s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Ryan Hall
"The Wizard"
10-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
Blue corner
W2
Ilia Topuria
"El Matador"
18-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—