Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Niko Price
Michel Pereira
23%
77%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
16-11
Career record
Δ 11 pp
33-14
L1
Current streak
W2
12
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Price: 76 sig / 0 TD ·
Pereira: 92 sig / 3 TD
Niko Price
Michel Pereira
36
Sig strikes landed
48
88
Sig strikes attempted
90
44
Total strikes landed
59
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
95s
Control time
42s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Niko Price
"The Hybrid"
16-11
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
12 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
L
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
Blue corner
W2
Michel Pereira
"Demolidor"
33-14
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—