Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Carlos Condit
Max Griffin
75%
25%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
37
Age
Δ 2y
36
33-14
Career record
Δ 8 pp
21-13
W2
Current streak
W2
16
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Condit: 63 sig / 0 TD ·
Griffin: 93 sig / 1 TD
Carlos Condit
Max Griffin
71
Sig strikes landed
64
164
Sig strikes attempted
137
82
Total strikes landed
75
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
80s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Carlos Condit
"The Natural Born Killer"
33-14
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
16 fights · 8-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
L
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
Blue corner
W2
Max Griffin
"Pain"
21-13
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
11 fights · 5-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
L
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—