Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sean O'Malley
Kris Moutinho
84%
16%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
27
Age
Δ 2y
29
W1
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
O'Malley: 230 sig / 0 TD ·
Moutinho: 70 sig / 0 TD
Sean O'Malley
Kris Moutinho
76
Sig strikes landed
33
117
Sig strikes attempted
78
77
Total strikes landed
44
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
0.9
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
71s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Sean O'Malley
"Suga"
20-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
Blue corner
Kris Moutinho
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29