Prelims2
Middleweight
Omari Akhmedov vs Brad Tavares
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Omari Akhmedov
Brad Tavares
72%
28%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
34
Age
Δ 0y
34
22-6-1
Career record
Δ 13 pp
22-13
W1
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
19
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Akhmedov: 48 sig / 2 TD ·
Tavares: 84 sig / 0 TD
Omari Akhmedov
Brad Tavares
43
Sig strikes landed
45
109
Sig strikes attempted
110
61
Total strikes landed
53
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.0
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
189s
Control time
60s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Omari Akhmedov
"Wolverine"
22-6-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
14 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
Blue corner
W1
Brad Tavares
22-13
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
19 fights · 13-6
Last 5
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—