Prelims2
Flyweight
Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs Jerome Rivera
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Jerome Rivera
52%
48%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
33
Age
Δ 7y
26
14-10
Career record
Δ 0 pp
10-7
L2
Current streak
L3
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Zhumagulov: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Rivera: 11 sig / 0 TD
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Jerome Rivera
42
Sig strikes landed
54
72
Sig strikes attempted
123
59
Total strikes landed
58
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
121s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
14-10
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
L
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
Blue corner
L3
Jerome Rivera
"Renegade"
10-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—