Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gilbert Burns
Stephen Thompson
71%
29%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
35
Age
Δ 3y
38
22-11
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-9-1
L1
Current streak
W2
16
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Burns: 29 sig / 3 TD ·
Thompson: 19 sig / 0 TD
Gilbert Burns
Stephen Thompson
59
Sig strikes landed
62
126
Sig strikes attempted
120
72
Total strikes landed
75
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.3
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
148s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gilbert Burns
"Durinho"
22-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
16 fights · 12-4
Last 5
L
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
Blue corner
W2
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
18-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
16 fights · 11-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—
W
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—