Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Poirier
Conor McGregor
72%
28%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
32
Age
Δ 0y
33
31-10
Career record
Δ 0 pp
22-7
W2
Current streak
L1
25
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 1
Poirier: 36 sig / 1 TD ·
McGregor: 27 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Poirier
Conor McGregor
58
Sig strikes landed
52
106
Sig strikes attempted
118
82
Total strikes landed
64
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.1
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
149s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
31-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
25 fights · 19-5
Last 5
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
Blue corner
L1
Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
22-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
L
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—