Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tai Tuivasa
Greg Hardy
69%
31%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 6"
80"
28
Age
Δ 5y
33
16-10
Career record
Δ 8 pp
7-6
W2
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Tuivasa: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Hardy: 6 sig / 0 TD
Tai Tuivasa
Greg Hardy
32
Sig strikes landed
37
61
Sig strikes attempted
76
44
Total strikes landed
43
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.3
0.8
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
111s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Tai Tuivasa
"Bam Bam"
16-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
Blue corner
L1
Greg Hardy
"Prince of War"
7-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—