Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Charles Rosa
Justin Jaynes
46%
54%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
35
Age
Δ 3y
32
14-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
16-9
L1
Current streak
L3
9
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Rosa: 51 sig / 2 TD ·
Jaynes: 44 sig / 2 TD
Charles Rosa
Justin Jaynes
39
Sig strikes landed
42
89
Sig strikes attempted
92
53
Total strikes landed
48
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
107s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Charles Rosa
"Boston Strong"
14-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
L
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
Blue corner
L3
Justin Jaynes
"The Guitar Hero"
16-9
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—