Back to UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Marcin Prachnio vs Ike Villanueva

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Marcin Prachnio
Ike Villanueva
67% 33%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
33
Age
Δ 4y
37
18-9
Career record
Δ 9 pp
19-14
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Prachnio: 59 sig / 0 TD · Villanueva: 34 sig / 1 TD
Marcin Prachnio
Ike Villanueva
42
Sig strikes landed
33
76
Sig strikes attempted
63
49
Total strikes landed
49
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
50s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
74%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Marcin Prachnio

18-9
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
W UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
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L UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
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L UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
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Blue corner
W1

Ike Villanueva

"Hurricane"
19-14
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—