Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Warlley Alves
Jeremiah Wells
55%
45%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
30
Age
Δ 4y
35
W1
Current streak
—
12
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Alves: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Wells: 21 sig / 0 TD
Warlley Alves
Jeremiah Wells
36
Sig strikes landed
39
73
Sig strikes attempted
75
55
Total strikes landed
52
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
155s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Warlley Alves
16-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
W
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
Blue corner
Jeremiah Wells
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
35