Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Andre Fili
Daniel Pineda
69%
31%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 5"
69"
31
Age
Δ 5y
36
25-14
Career record
Δ 3 pp
28-18
L1
Current streak
L1
16
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Could Not Continue · Round 2
Fili: 34 sig / 1 TD ·
Pineda: 15 sig / 0 TD
Andre Fili
Daniel Pineda
46
Sig strikes landed
36
105
Sig strikes attempted
77
62
Total strikes landed
46
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
123s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Andre Fili
"Touchy"
25-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
16 fights · 9-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
L
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
W
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
Blue corner
L1
Daniel Pineda
"The Pit"
28-18
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—