Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Raoni Barcelos
Timur Valiev
55%
45%
Why
67"
Reach
67"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
23-5
Career record
Δ 4 pp
19-3
W5
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Barcelos: 69 sig / 0 TD ·
Valiev: 77 sig / 0 TD
Raoni Barcelos
Timur Valiev
47
Sig strikes landed
35
96
Sig strikes attempted
83
74
Total strikes landed
57
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.9
3.7
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.70
Knockdowns
0.10
144s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Raoni Barcelos
23-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
Blue corner
W1
Timur Valiev
"Lucky"
19-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—