Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Tim Means
Nicolas Dalby
55%
45%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
37
Age
Δ 1y
37
34-17-1
Career record
Δ 13 pp
25-6-1
W2
Current streak
W2
23
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Means: 53 sig / 1 TD ·
Dalby: 54 sig / 0 TD
Tim Means
Nicolas Dalby
57
Sig strikes landed
44
115
Sig strikes attempted
105
69
Total strikes landed
59
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.4
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
54s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
34-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
23 fights · 13-9
Last 5
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
Blue corner
W2
Nicolas Dalby
"Lokomotivo"
25-6-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
7 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—