Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Renato Moicano
Jai Herbert
69%
31%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 5"
77"
32
Age
Δ 1y
33
21-8-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
14-7-1
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Moicano: 26 sig / 5 TD ·
Herbert: 7 sig / 0 TD
Renato Moicano
Jai Herbert
42
Sig strikes landed
28
80
Sig strikes attempted
78
54
Total strikes landed
41
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.2
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
87s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Renato Moicano
21-8-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
Blue corner
L1
Jai Herbert
"Black Country Banger"
14-7-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—