Prelims1
Welterweight
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Michel Prazeres
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Michel Prazeres
71%
29%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 10"
68"
27
Age
Δ 13y
40
20-0
Career record
Δ 16 pp
26-5
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Rakhmonov: 21 sig / 1 TD ·
Prazeres: 6 sig / 0 TD
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Michel Prazeres
29
Sig strikes landed
17
59
Sig strikes attempted
36
58
Total strikes landed
49
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
157s
Control time
165s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
67%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Shavkat Rakhmonov
"Nomad"
20-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
Blue corner
L1
Michel Prazeres
"Tractor"
26-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—