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Ion Cutelaba vs Dustin Jacoby

UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Ion Cutelaba
Dustin Jacoby
58% 42%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
27
Age
Δ 6y
33
20-12-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
23-9-1
L2
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Cutelaba: 71 sig / 9 TD · Jacoby: 84 sig / 1 TD
Ion Cutelaba
Dustin Jacoby
46
Sig strikes landed
38
108
Sig strikes attempted
93
52
Total strikes landed
46
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
55s
Control time
30s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Ion Cutelaba

"The Hulk"
20-12-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database 9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
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L UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
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L UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
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W UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
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Blue corner
W2

Dustin Jacoby

"The Hanyak"
23-9-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
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W UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
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L UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
L UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—