Back to UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt
Prelims1 Flyweight

David Dvorak vs Juancamilo Ronderos

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
David Dvorak
Juancamilo Ronderos
79% 21%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
64"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
W2
Current streak
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2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Dvorak: 9 sig / 0 TD · Ronderos: 11 sig / 0 TD
David Dvorak
Juancamilo Ronderos
54
Sig strikes landed
35
106
Sig strikes attempted
86
63
Total strikes landed
45
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
116s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

David Dvorak

"Undertaker"
21-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
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Blue corner

Juancamilo Ronderos

"100"
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26