Back to UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt
Prelims1 Featherweight

Josh Culibao vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Josh Culibao
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
17% 83%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
27
Age
27
D1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Culibao: 53 sig / 0 TD · Nuerdanbieke: 17 sig / 2 TD
Josh Culibao
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
22
Sig strikes landed
36
61
Sig strikes attempted
65
38
Total strikes landed
55
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
106s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
38%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
D1

Josh Culibao

"Kuya"
11-4-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 0-1
Last 2
D UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
L UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
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Blue corner

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

"Wolverine"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27