Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafael Alves
Damir Ismagulov
24%
76%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
—
Current streak
W3
0
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Alves: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Ismagulov: 56 sig / 2 TD
Rafael Alves
Damir Ismagulov
35
Sig strikes landed
51
102
Sig strikes attempted
120
48
Total strikes landed
81
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
79s
Control time
240s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Rafael Alves
"The Turn"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
W3
Damir Ismagulov
"Qazaq"
25-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
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