Main
Women's Strawweight
Yan Xiaonan vs Carla Esparza
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Yan Xiaonan
Carla Esparza
65%
35%
Why
63"
Reach
63"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
20-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
21-8
W6
Current streak
W4
6
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Xiaonan: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Esparza: 27 sig / 3 TD
Yan Xiaonan
Carla Esparza
60
Sig strikes landed
46
131
Sig strikes attempted
117
86
Total strikes landed
94
0.2
Takedowns landed
2.3
0.4
Takedowns attempted
8.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
57s
Control time
246s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Yan Xiaonan
20-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
Blue corner
W4
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
21-8
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—