Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Justin Tafa
Jared Vanderaa
63%
37%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
80"
27
Age
Δ 2y
29
7-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
12-11
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tafa: 74 sig / 0 TD ·
Vanderaa: 121 sig / 0 TD
Justin Tafa
Jared Vanderaa
28
Sig strikes landed
31
44
Sig strikes attempted
48
39
Total strikes landed
33
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
113s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Justin Tafa
"Bad Man"
7-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
L
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
Blue corner
L1
Jared Vanderaa
12-11
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—