Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rob Font
Cody Garbrandt
67%
33%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
66"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
23-10
Career record
Δ 0 pp
16-7
W3
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Font: 176 sig / 2 TD ·
Garbrandt: 63 sig / 3 TD
Rob Font
Cody Garbrandt
63
Sig strikes landed
40
134
Sig strikes attempted
99
69
Total strikes landed
42
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
43s
Control time
44s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Rob Font
23-10
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
L
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
Blue corner
W1
Cody Garbrandt
"No Love"
16-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
L
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
L
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
L
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—