Main
Women's Flyweight
Katlyn Cerminara vs Viviane Araujo
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
·Toyota Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Katlyn Cerminara
Viviane Araujo
69%
31%
Why
68"
Reach
68"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
19-6
Career record
Δ 9 pp
14-7
W1
Current streak
W2
12
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cerminara: 127 sig / 0 TD ·
Araujo: 89 sig / 1 TD
Katlyn Cerminara
Viviane Araujo
80
Sig strikes landed
67
204
Sig strikes attempted
159
105
Total strikes landed
82
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
109s
Control time
61s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Katlyn Cerminara
"Blonde Fighter"
19-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
L
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
Blue corner
W2
Viviane Araujo
"Vivi"
14-7
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
—
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—