Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shane Burgos
Edson Barboza
75%
25%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
75"
30
Age
Δ 5y
35
15-4
Career record
Δ 15 pp
25-14
L1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Burgos: 80 sig / 0 TD ·
Barboza: 98 sig / 0 TD
Shane Burgos
Edson Barboza
85
Sig strikes landed
81
146
Sig strikes attempted
172
98
Total strikes landed
83
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
60s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Shane Burgos
"Hurricane"
15-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
W
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
Blue corner
W1
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
25-14
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
24 fights · 15-9
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—