Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Matt Schnell
Rogerio Bontorin
45%
55%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
18-10
Career record
Δ 12 pp
16-5
W1
Current streak
L2
8
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 3
Schnell: 65 sig / 0 TD ·
Bontorin: 72 sig / 1 TD
Matt Schnell
Rogerio Bontorin
31
Sig strikes landed
28
69
Sig strikes attempted
60
42
Total strikes landed
38
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.0
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
70s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Matt Schnell
"Danger"
18-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
Blue corner
L2
Rogerio Bontorin
16-5
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—