Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Lando Vannata
Mike Grundy
52%
48%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
29
Age
Δ 5y
34
12-9-2
Career record
Δ 18 pp
12-5
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Vannata: 80 sig / 1 TD ·
Grundy: 32 sig / 3 TD
Lando Vannata
Mike Grundy
41
Sig strikes landed
35
86
Sig strikes attempted
81
54
Total strikes landed
49
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
92s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Lando Vannata
"Groovy"
12-9-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
10 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
D
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
Blue corner
L1
Mike Grundy
12-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—