Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jacare Souza
Andre Muniz
38%
62%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
41
Age
Δ 10y
31
26-11
Career record
Δ 5 pp
25-8
L3
Current streak
W2
15
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Souza: 11 sig / 1 TD ·
Muniz: 7 sig / 2 TD
Jacare Souza
Andre Muniz
15
Sig strikes landed
31
29
Sig strikes attempted
54
32
Total strikes landed
56
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
152s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
41%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Jacare Souza
26-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
W
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
Blue corner
W2
Andre Muniz
"Sergipano"
25-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—