Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Tony Ferguson
Beneil Dariush
49%
51%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
37
Age
Δ 5y
32
26-12
Career record
Δ 4 pp
24-8-1
L2
Current streak
W6
18
UFC fights in our DB
19
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ferguson: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Dariush: 23 sig / 3 TD
Tony Ferguson
Beneil Dariush
54
Sig strikes landed
52
102
Sig strikes attempted
109
74
Total strikes landed
75
0.1
Takedowns landed
2.0
0.1
Takedowns attempted
6.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
38s
Control time
232s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
26-12
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
18 fights · 15-3
Last 5
L
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
Blue corner
W6
Beneil Dariush
24-8-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
19 fights · 14-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—