🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
·Toyota Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Charles Oliveira
Michael Chandler
88%
12%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
32
Age
Δ 4y
35
38-11
Career record
Δ 7 pp
24-10
W8
Current streak
W1
27
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Oliveira: 24 sig / 1 TD ·
Chandler: 30 sig / 0 TD
Charles Oliveira
Michael Chandler
25
Sig strikes landed
25
46
Sig strikes attempted
46
43
Total strikes landed
31
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.9
Takedowns attempted
-0.1
1.00
Knockdowns
0.30
139s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
11%
KO/TKO
64%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
27 fights · 18-8
Last 5
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
Blue corner
W1
Michael Chandler
"Iron"
24-10
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—