Main
Lightweight
Diego Ferreira vs Gregor Gillespie
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Diego Ferreira
Gregor Gillespie
50%
50%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
36
Age
Δ 2y
34
19-8
Career record
Δ 17 pp
14-2
L1
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Ferreira: 31 sig / 0 TD ·
Gillespie: 45 sig / 4 TD
Diego Ferreira
Gregor Gillespie
39
Sig strikes landed
35
101
Sig strikes attempted
94
50
Total strikes landed
51
0.1
Takedowns landed
2.3
0.6
Takedowns attempted
5.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
45s
Control time
240s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Diego Ferreira
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
Blue corner
L1
Gregor Gillespie
"The Gift"
14-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—