Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Phil Hawes
Kyle Daukaus
37%
63%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
13-6
Career record
Δ 13 pp
18-4
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hawes: 66 sig / 2 TD ·
Daukaus: 28 sig / 0 TD
Phil Hawes
Kyle Daukaus
26
Sig strikes landed
21
51
Sig strikes attempted
47
51
Total strikes landed
48
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.8
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
195s
Control time
179s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Phil Hawes
"No Hype"
13-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
Blue corner
W1
Kyle Daukaus
18-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—