Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Neil Magny
Geoff Neal
70%
30%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
31-16
Career record
Δ 2 pp
16-9
L1
Current streak
L1
24
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Magny: 55 sig / 2 TD ·
Neal: 35 sig / 1 TD
Neil Magny
Geoff Neal
57
Sig strikes landed
54
128
Sig strikes attempted
105
76
Total strikes landed
65
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
5.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
112s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
31-16
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
24 fights · 17-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
Blue corner
L1
Geoff Neal
"Handz of Steel"
16-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—