Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Alex Morono
66%
34%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
38
Age
Δ 7y
31
36-17
Career record
Δ 5 pp
24-14
L4
Current streak
L1
36
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Cerrone: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Morono: 35 sig / 0 TD
Donald Cerrone
Alex Morono
43
Sig strikes landed
72
105
Sig strikes attempted
144
48
Total strikes landed
77
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
90s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L4
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
36-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
36 fights · 23-12
Last 5
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
Blue corner
L1
Alex Morono
"The Great White"
24-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
12 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—
L
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—